Sandy, Day 3

As I noted last night, lost power and everything related (but not wife, cat, house still in one piece, no flooding).   Got a tree issue taken care of today, with more to come but looking better.  But probably no power or home internet or heat for, oh, ten days at least....Told today that our town hall has heat and wi-fi so there now, and not too crowded, so may be able to do some actual blogging tomorrow, so stay tuned....Sorry to be out of commission in final week or election campaign I have followed as closely as anyone..... But my e-book on the campaign still set to go, on the Day After...

And, for now, for the hell of it, here's Nate Silver's latest forecasting today:

Mr. Obama made gains in the FiveThirtyEight forecast on Tuesday, with his chances of winning the Electoral College increasing to 77.4 percent.

A fair amount of this boils down to Ohio, where three polls released on Tuesday gave Mr. Obama leads by margins ranging from three to five percentage points. Two of the polls, from Grove Research and the Mellman Group, generally show strong results for Democrats, which give them less impact in the forecast after applying our adjustment for pollster “house effects”. Still, the three polls taken collectively were enough to widen Mr. Obama’s projected lead in Ohio to 2.4 percentage points from 2.1 on Monday. Given how central Ohio is to each candidate’s electoral strategy — and how little time remains in the race — this was enough to improve Mr. Obama’s Electoral College chances.

Recycled Thanksgiving turkey napkin rings

These napkin rings are quick, easy, and inexpensive to create and they match the previous tutorial --Thanksgiving turkey silverware pockets. The fun part is that they are also dimensional with the turkeys standing at attention.  They will surely get the attention of your guests as well.

You will need:

Cardboard tube from the inside of a paper towel roll

Embossed felt

Small foam turkey stickers

22-gauge wire

Scissors

Ruler

White colored pencil for marking on dark felt

Tacky craft glue

Wire cutters

1/8” hole punch

E size seed bead for each napkin ring

Clothespins are handy for holding felt till the glue dries

1.     Measure and cut four pieces off the cardboard tube to 1 ½” lengths.  Trim the rings evenly around.

2.     Measure and cut 4 pieces of embossed felt 1 ½” x 6”.

3.     It is a good idea to put two fingers inside the ring to hold it while you are gluing.  Spread a generous amount of glue all over the outside of the ring. Attach the felt piece working around to cover. Trim the ends to make sure the ends meet. Let dry.  Trim the felt all around the edges of the cardboard to form the ring base.

4.     On the opposite side from where the ends meet, punch a hole in the center with a 1/8” hole punch.

5.     Using the wire cutters cut a 2 ½” piece of 22 gauge wire.  Thread an E sized seed bead on it and bend in half.  (See photo) Thread the bended wire with the seed bead attached through the inside of the napkin ring base.  Two wire pieces will protrude.

6.     Remove the paper backing from one small foam turkey sticker and attach to the two wire pieces protruding from the napkin ring.  Make sure the turkey bottom touches the base.  Trim wire if necessary.

7.     Remove the paper backing from a second turkey and attach to the first turkey covering the wires.

8.     Add your napkins and enjoy!

Sandy and Me

Sorry I've been off line for more than 24 hours now, but Sandy winds hits north of NYC, a roar rose behind us,  and I'm am now without power, internet, heat, even water, and writing this from a Panera--one of very, very few places with power for miles around....Two big trees down right around house but no damage to house, but power lines and cable tangled and would guess will take two weeks to get back online at home. 

Will try to blog from...somewhere in days ahead.  This smart guy made hotel booking a few days ago.  One prob: hotel has no power.  

More, sooner (or later).   So, what were the Gallup and PPP numbers today?

Monday Poll Dancing

UPDATE #1:   New Pew national survey says, oddly, that Obama has failed to regain footing--but finds him tied with Romney while he was down 4% three weeks ago.   It finds only 6% edge among women for Obama, lower than most polls for sure.  And it finds voters expect Obama to win 49%-31%.

 New Gallup daily at 1 pm.  It found some gains for Obama yesrerday.  Today: Mixed news for Obama.  He lost the point he gained among likely voters yesterday (in the 7-day poll) and again trails by 5%.  However, he had a giant jump in the 3-day approval rating (after gaining 2% yesterday) and now back up to healthy 51%.  This suggests gains in the 7-day poll in coming days....

Obama at press conference just now: "I am not worried at this point on the impact on the election...It will take care of itself next week." He cancelled all appearances starting last night.  Bill Clinton filling in for him today i Florida. 

And away we go, eight days before the election.  Interesting new development:  Will polling decrease, or get less accurate, thanks to Sandy causing disruptions in reaching good samples?

More movement toward the president in Rasmussen, with its daily tracker knocking another point of the Romney lead (as it did yesterday), so it's down to 2%. 

Another new poll, good for Obama, is the Politico/Battleground which finds him with a 1% lead nationally--he had previously trailed by 2%.  He leads  53%-45% among those who have already voted (about 1 in 7 of all voters).  It found an 11% edge for Obama among women.

As we noted last night, new Reuters-Ipsos has him 3% ahead (even as Gallup and Rasmussen keep him down by 3%-4%).   Both PPP and WashPost/ABC have Romney by 1%.  Swing state polling continues to favor Obama and Nate Silver has maintained odds for Obama at around 73%.  New Rasmussen puts Romney 2% ahead in Ohio but Huff Post analysis today gives Obama  just over the needed 270 electoral votes from solid and leaning states--with 55 votes still full toss-ups.

PPP, often Dem-leaning, gives Sen. Sherrod Brown new 11% lead in Ohio.  The Cincinnati Enquirer backed Romney on Sunday--but also Brown. 

Krugman: Doris Lessing Is Gone

The NYT columnist with blog item just now announcing the inevitable:   "Some readers may know that for a long time Robin and I have had two sibling cats, Albert Einstein and Doris Lessing, both 19. Well, Doris — who had a lot of health problems over the years, but always managed to hold up — has had a tumor on her liver for several months. We babied her along, getting her to eat by feeding her special treats, and she held up much longer than the vet expected. But several days ago she stopped eating and drinking, seeming increasingly uncomfortable, and this morning we did the necessary and had her put to sleep. I bawled like a baby. But she had a good life."

Now He Tells Us

In a new hour-long interview with David Frost for the BBC, Paul McCartney disputes the popular perception (at one time promoted by him) that John Lennon's relatonship with Yoko Ono in the late-1960s broke up the Beatles. “She certainly didn’t break the group up,” McCartney said in remarks quoted by The Guardian. “The group was breaking up....

“When Yoko came along, part of her attraction was her avant garde side, her view of things, so she showed him another way to be, which was very attractive to him. So it was time for John to leave, he was definitely going to leave.”

Krugman Hits Romney on Medicaid

Medicare has gotten most of the attention, but the GOP's plans to hurt Medicaid must less so, but here's Paul Krugman with a corrective, in tomorrow's column.

If he wins, Medicaid — which now covers more than 50 million Americans, and which President Obama would expand further as part of his health reform — will face savage cuts. Estimates suggest that a Romney victory would deny health insurance to about 45 million people who would have coverage if he lost, with two-thirds of that difference due to the assault on Medicaid.

So this election is, to an important degree, really about Medicaid. And this, in turn, means that you need to know something more about the program.

And The Rain Came Down

Another tune to welcome Sandy, Steve Earle, "The Rain Came Down."

Director Backs Romney as Zombie-Friendly

In one of the best ads of this cycle, film director Joss Whedon (Marvel's The Avengers) professes to be a former Obama backer who has switched to Romney because he is likely to bring on the "zombie apocalypse." And the way he describes it, yeah, could be.

Connie: Mitt's Full of Something and It Ain't Heart, Y'all

One of my faves, even in the new soap opera "Nashville," Connie Britton,  has co-written a column for USA Today hitting Romney for mis-using "Clear eyes, full hearts, can't lose" from Friday Night Lights, set in Dillon, TX. (Of course, she played Tammy, coach's wife.)  She writes,  "Dillon is a classic American town filled with hard-working, middle-class Americans, who just want to lead productive, healthy lives. And the women we represented on the show -- the women we are in real life -- are like the millions of women across the nation. Women who want to make our own health care decisions. Women who want to earn equal pay for the work we do. Women who want affordable health care....

"So as women, let's take 'Clear Eyes, Full Hearts/ back and use it as it was always intended -- as a motivator for progress, power, and greatness. Let's use our clear eyes and full hearts to vote early. Let's use our clear eyes and full hearts to tell every friend, family member and neighbor about what's at stake for women in this election. What's at stake for all of us."

Drink Up for the Storm: A Fifth of Beethoven

What betters captures the dread--and "fate knocking"--of the Sandy storm prelude than the first movement of Beethoven's 5th Symphony, and you may have never heard it this way before:  Glenn Gould's solo piano version (based on Liszt transcription).  I prefer the Glenn/Franz 6th symphony but that's far too "pastoral" for this night.

from a grateful American

Hey everyone,

First of all, I hope this finds everyone on our east coast safe and sound. We have family in Norfolk and have been watching the weather maps regularly.

Today's Crafting News

I'm so excited! Not only did I make a significant dent in my craft show project --details in a blog-to-come, but I also had a chance to do an Any Hero card for this week's OWH sketch on the day it was posted! It seems like a long time since I've been able to say that.

Bo Bunny Liberty, jute, and a star punched from a kraft gift bag;
Sentiment: Stamper's Best stamped in Close to my Heart Night of Navy;
Gem: Hero Arts; Star Punches: Fiskars and the Paper Studio

I love the combo of navy and jute -- and it immediately came to my mind when I saw this week's sketch. I originally punched the larger star from a sheet of BasicGrey kraft paper. But, the color of the gift bag seemed a better match. And, I thought about trimming the left edge of the jute, but decided to go with this asymmetrical look. :)

Parting Thoughts

For those of you on the east coast, stay safe.

Thanks for visiting and happy scrappin'!

The First Attack Ads on the Screen: Courtesy Irving Thalberg!

The months-long uproar over negative campaign ads, from both the Romney and Obama camps, and for their "non-affiliated" PACs, has reached a climax this week.  But it may surprise most people to learn that the first attack ads on the screen date back well before TVs were in nay homes.  Yes, it happened in 1934, starting 78 years ago this week, with faux newsreels produced by MGM's saintly Irving Thalberg to defeat the Democratic nominee for governor of California--none other than ex-socialist writer Upton Sinclair, as detailed in my book "The Campaign of the Century" and in brief video below:

Sunday Morning in the Church of Beethoven

Continuing my weekly feature, even with Sandy bearing down, we turn to the final movement of what many consider Beethoven's greatest string quartet--the opus 131--which also marks the climax of the upcoming film "A Late Quartet," starring Christopher Walken as, yes, a famous cellist and Philip Seymour Hoffman as the unhappy 2nd violinist (more on that to come).

Gary Glitter, Again

No, not a joke:  The Brits have made an arrest in that "BBC scandal" involving coverup of Jimmy Savile and child sex charges (and now drawing former BBC chief/new NYT CEO Mark Thompson in)--and according to reports, it's none other than '70s rocker, with a long history in these matters, Gary Glitter.    More than 300 have already come forward to accuse Savile of pedophilia.  NYT:  "Mr. Glitter, a glam-rock star whose real name is Paul Francis Gadd, was convicted in Britain in 1999 on charges of possessing child pornography. He served nearly three years in prison in Vietnam for sexually abusing two girls, aged 11 and 12 years."  In case you wonder what Mr. Glitter was up to back in the day (he also was famous for, "Do You Want to Touch Me"):

The True Nature of Change

Humanity has always despised change and every now and then they erupt with such rage and violence that simple conscious cannot stand its toll. This all-consuming rage directed at whatever it is that has caused this change upon the delicate society. For over a decade we have been preparing for just another of these great changes. A change is coming where the old freedoms have to be re written with new freedom.

Though every time we say that it’s just another change we realize it’s no passing matter. The change how small or great is never the real problem but what happens when the change comes is what that bothers. As someone wisely said “The night is darkest before dawn”, so is the nature of every change. Just before the change all reduce to chaos, all become dangerously unstable, books are to be rewritten understandings are to be changed. The true colour and nature of change brings forth the rue colour and nature of the ones whose lives are about to be rewritten. Some of them accept, some resist, others fight and when the change is larger and ever the more radical the resistance is higher. 

For any change to take place in a society the society has to mature and a considerable amount of consciousness has to evolve and only when a society so becomes mature and potent that the change happens. And when the change is seen through and the perils of the darkness have been abolished comes solace, a deeper understanding of self and self-righteousness.

But then again we ask ourselves why change, can’t we live in the apathy of the world and let chaos be chaos? The truth is human beings are totally and completely incapable of handling serenity. Once freedom has been seen humanity cannot rest until this freedom has been established. Many lay there life for ideals far greater than themselves and in this process they become the ever remembered symbols of change.

Humanity has always been an optimistic species and even when subjected to darkest of hours they tend to find the way to light. Unlike what the majority of world believes humanity is not a lost cause, they are in fact lazy but never lost. As duly noted by one eminent mind that humanity tend to act only at the precipice of danger. They like the stupid frog sits in the water as it simmers only realize the danger when the water around it starts boiling. 

The time is ripe and humanity has made the duly awaited leap. Now all that remains is the change itself and when the time is right a spark will fly and that spark will ignite in us all a flame. A flame so glorious that it cannot be extinguished by any one or any power and that spark will see it through that humanity is changed for the better once again.

More Songs to Worry By

From Springsteen, live 1975 (three years after I first him do it), "Lost in the Flood."

From Mr. Bob Dylan: "Shelter from the Storm," 1974, alternate take. 

'NYT' Endorses Obama

Not exactly a shock, but still: they among the relatively few who do so, they say, "enthusiastically." And they go issue by issue.  They also express hope for a Congress that may actually work with him at times.

President Obama has shown a firm commitment to using government to help foster growth. He has formed sensible budget policies that are not dedicated to protecting the powerful, and has worked to save the social safety net to protect the powerless. Mr. Obama has impressive achievements despite the implacable wall of refusal erected by Congressional Republicans so intent on stopping him that they risked pushing the nation into depression, held its credit rating hostage, and hobbled economic recovery.

Mitt Romney, the former governor of Massachusetts, has gotten this far with a guile that allows him to say whatever he thinks an audience wants to hear. But he has tied himself to the ultraconservative forces that control the Republican Party and embraced their policies, including reckless budget cuts and 30-year-old, discredited trickle-down ideas. Voters may still be confused about Mr. Romney’s true identity, but they know the Republican Party, and a Romney administration would reflect its agenda. Mr. Romney’s choice of Representative Paul Ryan as his running mate says volumes about that.

Note: Margaret Sullivan, the paper's fine new public editor, has a new column on how the Times makes its choice--and the influence of newspaper endorsements these days.  She even quotes me. 

Tomorrow's 'NYT' Columns This Afternoon

Okay, you got Maureen Dowd on why Mitt is, inexplicably gaining women voters.  Tom Friedman on being "pro-life" on more than just abortion matters and Nick Kristof on the hidden truths about rape.  Ross Douthat, of course, hits Obama on...something or other.  And the Times officially endorses Obama in an editorial.

AP Poll: So Much for the 'No Racism' Myth

 Romney rally in Ohio: Getty Images

We've heard the argument all autumn--racism is a tiny factor (if a factor at all) in explicit hatred of Obama and general drift toward whiter-than-white Romney.  Now the Associated Press is out with a poll showing that not only do a majority of Americans harbor some anti-black views ("whether they recognize those feelings or not"), that number has actually grown since Obama took office--up from 51% to 56%.

AP:  "Those views could cost President Barack Obama votes as he tries for re-election, the survey found, though the effects are mitigated by some people’s more favorable views of blacks."  They said racist views will cost Obama 5% of the vote, while pro-black views gain him 3%, so he loses 2% on balance. 

And anti-Hispanic views are held by 57%.  

AP found a wide partisan gap, with 79% of Republicans vs. 32% of Dems expressing anti-black views.  The AP developed the surveys "to measure sensitive racial views in several ways and repeated those studies several times between 2008 and 2012," they relate.  They ask questions to tease how prejudicial views, such as whether people in ethnic groups are viewed as lazy, or if you are less likely to vote for someone because of their race.

The poll found that only 49% believe Obama was born in the U.S., with 39% still saying he was born in another country.  The rest would not offer an opinion.   Still, the wingnuts quickly denounced the poll, or rather, "poll," as they put it.

Other findings, when you drill down:  23% consider Obama "socialist"  and 18% call him "un-American." Some 33% ID him as Protestant or Catholic with 10% calling him Muslim--and 18% saying he is Jewish.   The poll sample was 1,057 adults with margin of error about 3.5%, with 35% Dem and 27% GOPers.  The sample was 67% white. Full results here.

Why Isn't Obama Ahead (By More)?

Frank Bruni in his Sunday NYT column ticks off the many indicators that suggest Obama should have a more clear lead over Romney in the final stretch, plus Romney's major flaws.   Yet he does not.   Instead he has "squandered advantages."  You will probably argue with some of his points, agree with others.  For example, he dismisses racism with the rightwing talking point that it can't be a factor because, after all, he did get elected last time!  This ignores the fact that most white Americans voted against him last time, and that total has risen to about 62% this year.  Obviously, most of them are not racists but is naive to suggest that this in no factor at all. 

A Star-Filled Tribute

Hi everyone,

A quick post of an Any Hero card inspired by this week's OWH Sketch, Sketch #143.

Paper: We R Memory Keeper Red, White & Blue
Punch: the Paper Studio
sSentiment: heat embossed in Distress Ink Black Soot

When I saw the sketch, I immediately thought of rows of stars.  However, as you can see, the sketch calls for five 0.5-inch rows. Since my smaller star punch was a little wider than that, I went with 3 rows. In addition, I rotated the sketch to go with a pre-written Any Hero card message.

A trick I recently learned -- that everyone else probably already knows :) -- is to cut the small strips and adhere them to the card before cutting them to the "correct" length. This was certainly  much easier than my previous strategy of trying to measure first and then adhere.

Oh, and one more thing, I placed the center star in each row first. Then, I placed the far left and right stars. Lastly, I placed the second and fourth stars -- "eyeballing" them between the end and middle stars.

A simple, but heartfelt, card that I hope will convey gratitude and appreciation to a hero.

Parting Thoughts

Hoping to get to work on a project for the upcoming Craft Show.

Have a great weekend. Thanks for stopping and happy scrappin!

Thanksgiving turkey silverware pocket

This silverware pocket is quick to make, and will add a decorative touch to your holiday table.  In addition, it’s an easy and fun craft for the kids.  The supplies are inexpensive and readily available at craft stores.

You will need:

Embossed or regular 12 x 9 inch felt (I used embossed)

Package of foam turkey stickers (48 came in my pack)

Brown, tan and orange feathers

Striped orange chenille stem (you may substitute any color if desired)

Tacky Craft glue

Scissors

Ruler

White colored pencil to mark on dark felt

Cardboard

Scraps of decorative trim in matching shade

Clothespins for holding till the glue sets

1.     Prepare the turkeys.  Remove the paper backing from the turkey and attach three feathers, fanning out.  Trim the feathers to the desired size if necessary

2.     Cut a chenille stem 2.”  Bend it in half and then and bend each end upward. (Legs made, see photo) Attach the legs to the center back of the turkeys with some tacky glue. 

3.     Make the felt pockets.  Felt comes in 12 x 9 sections.  Each section will make two silverware pockets.  Cut the felt to 10” x 9.” Measure and cut two rectangles 4 ½” x 5.”  Fold each 4 ½” x 5” rectangle in half lengthwise.

4.     Measure and mark 1” from the folded bottom and 1” from the side.  Meet the lines and cut on a diagonal.  Repeat on the other side.  (See photo)

5.     Open the sections and run a bead of tacky glue on the inside all around leaving the top unglued.  (See photo)  Press together and secure with clothespins until the glue sets. Let dry. Cut a piece of matching decorative trim 4 ½” and glue to the top edge.  Center a prepared turkey on the pocket bottom and attach with some tacky glue.  Let dry.

6.      Cut a piece of cardboard 3 ½” x 3 ½” and insert in the pocket for added firmness.  Add your silverware in each pocket and enjoy.

Aleene'S 40454 Aleene's Thick Designer "Tacky"Glue (Google Affiliate Ad)

Weekend Newspaper Endorsements

UPDATE #3  Bunch of new endorsements Sunday morning.  According to this non-partisan chart, the circulation of the papers among the nation's 100 largest that are backing Obama is now 8.6 million, vs. 4.3 million for Romney, with 32 nods for the president and 24 for the challenger (of course, many are in states that are not being hotly contested).   Among the latest:  In key swing state Ohio, the Cincinnati Enquirer, usually Republican, backed Romney--but also Sen. Sherrod Brown.  However, the Toledo Blade went for Obama.   In another battleground, the Richmond Times-Dispatch endorsed Romney.

The Detroit Free Press picked Obama (balancing the Romney-backing of the Detroit News).  The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette and the Buffalo News both chose Obama, as did the Hartford Courant and the News & Observer in Raleigh, N.C.  and the paper in Lexington, Ky.  The Oklahoman in Oklahoma City went for Romney. 

UPDATE #2    Kansas City Star latest big city paper to back Obama. 

Blow to Obama tonight, with the key paper in Iowa, the Des Moines Register, endorsing Romney, in a bit of surprise.  The paper has not backed a Republican for 40 years--backing (ouch) Nixon. Remember, this was the paper that complained when Obama said their interview with him was off the record (after they went public, he relented).   Did they resent it?  Their editorial  said, “Voters should give Mitt Romney a chance to correct the nation’s fiscal course and to implode the partisan gridlock that has shackled Washington and the rest of America — with the understanding that he would face the same assessment in four years if he does not succeed.”  Read it all, for a good laugh.

Note: By now, a very large number of Iowans have already voted.

UPDATE #1  Margaret Sullivan, the NYT's fine new public editor, interviewed me earlier this re: the value of newspaper endorsements, and her Sunday column, with a quote or two from me is now posted.  It coincides with the Times endorsing Obama, "enthusiastically."

Earlier:  I've been tracking all of the major newspaper endorsements here and at The Nation (following my practice since 2000) and most papers will have made their picks by Sunday, although some wait until the final weekend.   Until now, the endorsements have been split, with Obama getting the edge in the number of larger papers, and Romney earning some key switches from papers that backed Obama in 2008.

This chart for the top 100 papers finds Obama with 23 endorsees to Romney's 18, and a nice edge in circulation numbers--and with backing from NYT not included last time I checked.

The San Jose Mercury-News today endorsed Obama, as it had in 2008.  This is not reflected in chart mentioned above.  Ditto: for the Minneapolis Star-Tribune.  The Miami Herald, in a key move, also has endorsed Obama:  "In the end, Mr. Obama’s policies across the board — the environment, social policy, taxes and immigration — offer a more generous vision for America. The issues he has fought for, coupled with the lingering doubts about Mr. Romney’s persona and his true intentions, make this a clear choice."   The Daily News in Los Angeles has backed Romney but the San Francisco Chronicle today went for the president.

Read more here: http://www.miamiherald.com/2012/10/26/3068819_p2/obama-for-president.html#storylink=cpy

The Chicago Tribune--often hard to predict--has endorsed native son Barack Obama for president.  The paper, once rigidly conservative, is again owned by Republicans but still backs the president.  As it admits,  "On questions of economics and limited government, the Chicago Tribune has forged principles that put us closer to the challenger in this race, Republican Mitt Romney. We write with those principles clearly in our minds. Romney advocates less spending, less borrowing -- overall, a less costly and less intrusive role for government in the lives of the governed."  But his deficit plan is not good, and Obama's foreign policy views much better.

Weekend Poll Updates

SUNDAY  7 p.m.  PPP just now reported Obama by 4% in Ohio.  Had race even last time they checked.

New Reuters-IPSOS poll gives Obama a 3% lead nationally.  New PPP puts Obama up 2% in N.H. (he was down one previously).

Today's 1 pm. Gallup marks a better day for Obama.  He gained a point among likely voters to trail by 4%,  took the lead again among reg voters by 1%, and gained 2 points in approval to 48%.


 Believe it or not, Omaha newspaper poll has Bob Kerrey, long considered the longest of longshots, within 3% of Deb Fischer--and another polls puts it at 2.5%.   And new Wash Post poll has Tim Kaine up 7% vs. George Allen.

Philadelphia Inquirer poll has Obama maintaining 6% lead in that state despite big Romney push.

Saturday UPDATE #2  Big one from Wash Post:  Obama with 51%-47% lead in Virginia.  As noted previously, if he wins there, Ohio becomes academic, likely.

Nate Silver at NYT (posted at 5 p.m.) continues to predict Obama win--now with rising 74% odds--despite national polls going against, in the main, still.  Reason? If anything, his lead swing states is growing or holding firm. 


UPDATE #1 The 1 p.m. daily Gallup tracker is out and it shows no change at all in the race, among likely voters (Romney +5) and reg voters (even),  but Obama's plunge in approval rating continues.  Just a few days ago he was at peak of 53% and now has declined to 46%.  This is a three-day poll so, if accurate, one would have to wonder what was going on Wed-Thurs-Fri.  

Earlier: Okay, here we go again.  Early Saturday we have new PPP showing candidates dead even nationally, and morning Rasmussen tracker boosting Romney back to a 4% lead.   CNN polls finds Obama maintaining steady 4% lead in Ohio.

BTW, last night on Bill Maher's show, Nate Silver repeated his estimate of an Obama, with 75% odds. This, of course, is based on his continuing lead in most key swing states.  So will Romney win popular vote and Obama electoral college?  Surprisingly, he placed the odds on this at only 7%.   He also said this is the biggest racial split yet in any presidential race.

Yes, amazingly, new poll finds Todd Akin close to Claire McCaskill in Missouri. 

Memo from the Boss: Vote for Romney

The NYT catches up to story reported long ago in other outlets about heads of companies directing their employees to vote for Romney.  Gosh, I wrote about this in my book about Upton Sinclair's fabled 1934 campaign, so it's hardly unprecedented, but still quite alarming--and in this case, the candidate himself has encouraged this.

Mr. Romney has himself urged business owners to appeal to their employees. In a conference call in June organized by the National Federation of Independent Business, he said, “I hope you make it very clear to your employees what you believe is in the best interest of your enterprise and therefore their job and their future in the upcoming elections.”

And don't miss this new column by Joe Nocera on Romney, Nu-Skin, Mormons and the "ties that bind."

Oh Sandy, the Aurora Is Rising Behind Us

To preare for the next few days:  Neil Young with one of the all-time greats, "Like a Hurricane." Jackson Browne, "Before the Deluge."   Creedence, "Who'll Stop the Rain."   Will early voters sing, "I wanna vote for ya but I'm gettin' blown away"?

Meat Loaf: Vote Fraudster?

Smoking Gun with a "probe" of Meat Loaf voting effort, a day after he endorsed Romney in Ohio.   It seems he has moved to Austin, but failed to register there, and sold his house in California some time ago, so he has asked for a mail-in ballot from there.  So Smoking Gun suggests this is another case for James O'Keefe.

During his remarks last night, Aday exhorted rally attendees to “Go out and vote!” He also claimed to have made three calls Thursday “to Democrats in California and I got two of ‘em to switch to Romney.” He added, “So two out of three ain’t bad.”

Paul Krugman's Gets Civil

The columnist always has a Friday night song pick (often involving fire in an arcade) and this week it's The Civil Wars.  But continuing our Loudon Wainwright theme (see here) here's his "Paul Krugman Blues."

I Wish I Was (Were) a Lesbian

Classic Loudon Wainwright III song, with anime.

The Rape Exemption

Gail Collins in her Saturday column for NYT looks at What's Up, Mourdock in Indiana.   But she's not nuts about his opponent either:  "When it comes to abortion, both Mourdock and his Democratic opponent, Representative Joe Donnelly, are anti-choice. But, unlike Mourdock, Donnelly makes an exception in the case of rape or incest. One of the truly disturbing parts of our current politics is that we have begun to identify people who want to impose their religious beliefs on millions of women who don’t share them as moderates as long as they’re O.K. with the rape exemption."

The real moral of the Mourdock flap isn’t about giving rape victims special dispensation, or whether it’s offensive to say that you believe even sexual assaults are part of God’s plan. It’s the one President Obama came up with: “This is exactly why you don’t want a bunch of politicians, mostly male, making decisions about women’s health care.”

Joe the Plumber Debate

Watch here now, vs. Rep. Marcy Kaptur.

13abc.com: Breaking News, Weather and Sports

Friday Cat Blogging

Bowing to requests of so many since the other night (despite my protests), here's another shot of our shelter cat, Zoe, age 2, in a different (but common) setting.

The Main Top Issue Ignored in Campaign?

There's been much talk this week about the many key issues not raised at all (or just barely) in this year's debates,  the overall campaign and in media coverage:  from climate change to campaign financing.  But we still have not heard many complaints about this (perenially ignored) one:  how a candidate's faith may, or will, influence his views and decisions as president.  We saw what that lack of probing got us with George "Doing God's Will in Iraq" Bush.  The right only perked up when it could link Obama to Rev. Wright.

Very belatedly here's a new online column by the NYT's Bill Keller, inspired by Richard Mourdock's what-God-intends rape/pregnancy crack.  Keller ties this to Paul Ryan very well.  But still: no emphasis on Romney and Mormonism.  Reporters are so scared of getting accused of being religious bigots that they refuse to probe one of the most--some would say, most--vital factors in a candidate's makeup (when that candidate professes to be deeply devout).

Take this simple quiz:  Can you say much, if anything, about Romney's views in relation to his Mormonism, drawing on what he has said in the past and teachings he is supposed to follow?  If you know very little, at this very late date, who do you blame?

Newspaper Creates Bizarro World Romney

We've noted previously an unsettling trend for Obama fans this year: the number of large papers that backed him in 2008 now switching to Romney.   Last time around, quite the opposite happened, with papers that backed Bush going to Obama.  Today the South Florida Sun-Sentinel (based in populous Fort Lauderdale) made the switch, but you really have to read the editorial to marvel, perhaps even laugh, ruefully.

Nearly every position they endorse--from cutting the defense budget to protesting women's rights at the Supreme Court and favoring negotiation always--actually comes right from the Obama playbook.   The fantasy Romney they describe is Bizarro World Mitt.  They even claim,  "We believe Romney will help this nation find the political will to address the challenges with Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid."  Remember when Romney adding Ryan to the ticket would doom him in seniors-heavy Florida?

Friday Poll Watch

UPDATE #1  New CNN poll in Ohio has Obama up by 4%, just over the 3% average for other polls this week.  Rasmussen, no surprise, the outlier.

Nate Silver tweets at 3 p.m.:  "The eight national trackers published today show Obama +0.2% on average. (Was Romney +0.2% yesterday)."

Today's daily tracker from Gallup, which showed nice gains for Obama earlier this week, then no change yesterday, finds Romney gaining again, boosting his lead among likely voters to 5% and Obama's approval off 3% to just 48%.

Gallup also released a report on the debates.  Like all others, it found viewers gave the third debate to Obama, 56%-33%.  Also the second debate, after wide Mitt win in #1.  Asked who did better overall, judging all three debates, it was a virtual tie, with Romney up by 2%.

Even Rasmussen now gives Eliz Warren a solid 5% lead.  

Earlier: And here we go again.  After very good, overall, days for Obama Tuesday and Wednesday, Thursday results provided more of a mixed picture.  Now for Friday.

No change in today's Rasmussen--Obama still down 3 points.  PPP has the two candidates tied.  RAND puts Obama ahead by 6%.  Take yer pick.  NBC/WSJ has Obama up by 3% in Nevada and deadlocked in Colorado.  Two polls give the president a 3% edge in N.H.   New poll gives Tammy Duckworth big lead over the much-lamented Joe Walsh. 

Mittzine on the Way

Who said the magazine world is in peril?  Well, the most widely distributed magazine in the U.S. is coming soon, a glossy, 12-page number to be inserted inside newspapers around the country.   Amusing: the million dollar plus venture is sponsored by Joe Ricketts' PAC known as End the Spending Action Fund.  It features several heartwarming stories about the candidate:

In one article titled “How Romney’s Leadership Rescued a Missing Girl,” he is praised as a “hero” for helping track down the daughter of one of his colleagues at Bain Capital.
Another article, headlined “Romney to the Rescue,” chronicles the effort to save a family whose boat was sinking on Lake Winnipesaukee in New Hampshire. Also rescued, as the article notes: the family’s Scottish terrier, McKenzie. There is even a picture of the little dog.